It turns out that the Democratic candidate did win after all in New York's 23rd congressional district. The Republican vote simply remained too split after Dede Scozzafava's late withdrawal from the race. Indeed, if you add her 6% of the vote to Doug Hoffman's 45%, he would have won. But of course, that's not the way things work.
The result in Virginia, however, is rather stronger, with Bob McDonnell winning by roughly a 60-40 ratio—a huge blowout in a state Barack Obama won in 2008. And Chris Christie's win in New Jersey is perhaps even more shocking, given how tight the race was at the end and how little Christie did to differentiate himself from Corzine. The Democrats must really be unpopular if voters chose Christie as their protest vote.
There are some commentators who are already trying to dismiss the importance of these elections. Some are doing so dishonestly—see Ruth Marcus in the Washington Post trying to tell her readers, "move along, nothing to see here." Other objections are honest and more valid. At the Horse Race blog, Jay Cost lists some reasons why NY-23 was an unusual race whose implications may not hold for the rest of the country.
But I think Cost is looking at things from too narrow of a "horse-race" perspective and missing the crucial ideological factor: the right, and particularly the pro-free-market right, is energized and emboldened and is showing that it enjoys wider support among independents.
The Democrat's win in NY-23 means that the race will have its most direct implications for Republicans. Some are describing the lesson as a need for the party to respect its conservative "base." But again, I think that's too narrow and conventional. The small-government "tea party" types who have injected so much new energy into Republican politics are not necessarily part of the "base." Many are independents who could be won over by a Republican candidate who stands firmly for free markets. They just haven't seen one for a while.
And the independents are the big story of Tuesday's elections. Particularly in Virginia, the race was decided by independents who voted for Obama and the Democrats last year, who then switched their support to the Republicans this year. Michael Barone points specifically to a switch in loyalties in the suburbs:
From the 1996 election up through and including 2008, affluent counties in the East, Midwest, and West have trended Democratic, largely through distaste for the religious and cultural conservatives whom voters there have seen (not without reason) as dominant in the Republican Party. Now, with the specter of higher tax rates and a vastly expanded public sector, they may be—possibly—headed in the other direction.
As further evidence of a rightward trend—or at least, a trend against Obama—note that while Obama's overall job approval remains just barely above 50% in most polls, his approval rating on virtually every specific issue has collapsed:
Obama has lost a net of 19 points in support of his handling of health care; 17 points on his handling of the economy; 17 points on Afghanistan; 16 points foreign affairs; 16 points on the federal budget deficit; and 10 points on taxes.
I think it's inaccurate to talk about this as a "swing to the right," because I don't think there was actually a "swing to the left" in recent years. Polls have continued to show—right through Democratic victories in the Congress and White House—that Americans have not changed their basic views on the issues, and that most are more sympathetic with the right than the left.
The usual way of expressing this is to say that American is "a center-right country." But since recent events show that Americans are proving more sympathetic to the secular, small-government wing of the right, we can express that point a little more precisely: America is the country of capitalism.
In short, the pro-Democrat and pro-Obama votes in 2006 and 2008 did not represent an ideological shift toward socialism. They were a narrower protest against George W. Bush and against the lackluster candidacy of John "Me-Too" McCain. Now Obama is the one that voters want to register a protest against—and they just did.
Of course, the real significance of all of this is what it will mean for the health-care bill. The implication is not as strong as it would be if Hoffman had won in NY-23, but below Dick Morris concludes that the result in Virginia should paralyze conservative "Blue Dog" Democrats—and may well constitute the "deathblow" for ObamaCare.
"A Deathblow for Obamacare," Dick Morris and Eileen McGann, New York Post, November 3
Obviously, Christie's victory is a body blow to Obama after Corzine outspent the Republican by five-to-one and the president put on a serious push for the incumbent. Corzine's defeat sends a message that the nation is moving sharply against Obama.
But Virginia results are the most important. More than 80 Democratic congressmen and twenty senators come from states that John McCain carried in 2008. For them, the sudden switch in Virginia, a swing state that Obama actually carried, heralds tough political times ahead….
Until last night, Democratic moderates, the so-called blue dogs, could bask in the light of their candidate's success in 2008. But now they must hear hoof beats behind them. The party discipline on which Obama depends to pass a health-care program that Americans reject by 42 percent for, 55 percent against (Rasmussen again) will only work if beleaguered Democratic incumbents can wrap themselves in Obama's cloak and tough out the popular criticism….
But the votes in Virginia, in particular, show the limits of Obama's appeal…. That [McDonnell] coasted to so huge a victory in the swing state of Virginia now has to send a message to red-state Democratic congressmen: Obama may be able to survive in the deep water into which he is leading his party, but you can't.
2. Britain's Death Panels
I'm not a big fan of the Wall Street Journal's James Taranto, who often serves as a quasi-secular apologist for the religious right and who has been consistently, gratuitously hostile to Ayn Rand and Objectivism. But he occasionally makes a very sharp and creative observation, and recently he has done an excellent job of following an inexcusably neglected story: the recent flood of articles in the British press on the denial of medical care by Britain's National Health Service.
I have pointed out the irony of the fact that we are debating whether to give our government a controlling role in medicine, just as Britain is confronting the deadly consequences of doing so—yet hardly anyone in the mainstream media seems to be interested in reporting on those stories. But Taranto has been assiduously collecting them.
It was through him that I found the appalling story below, which reports that the NHS has deliberately withheld life-saving cancer treatments from patients over the age of 70—which is to say, precisely the age group most likely to get cancer. Note also from this story the continuing theme of how Britain's system has empowered bureaucrats to create arbitrary rules and limits on treatments. And Britain's doctors—reduced to civil servants—simply tick off the boxes on government forms rather than fighting for better care for their patients.
"Over 65? Why Some Doctors Think Giving You the Latest Cancer Drugs Is Just a Waste," Jane Feinmann, Daily Mail, November 3
Alarming research is showing that elderly cancer patients are missing out on the breakthroughs in chemotherapy and surgery that have dramatically improved the outcome of younger patients.
In fact, up to 15,000 elderly people with cancer in the UK are dying prematurely every year when compared to the rest of Europe and the US, according to a report published by the North West Cancer Intelligence Service (NWCIS) which compiles cancer statistics.
A major factor with breast cancer is that elderly patients frequently either have surgery only—or simply get a prescription for hormonal treatments such as Tamoxifen or Arimidex, which suppress the female hormone oestrogen and slow down the growth of the cancer.
These drugs are prescribed for younger women, but almost always alongside a regimen including chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and surgery.
What's causing alarm is the extent to which an age-related double standard for breast cancer treatment has crept into hospital protocols.
"Older people are far more likely to be turned down for expensive new treatments," says Kate Spall, founder of the Pamela Northcott Fund, set up in 2007 to campaign to help thousands of cancer patients gain access to new drugs. "We always have a fight on our hands to get treatment for someone over 65," she says….
A major concern is that the NHS Cancer Plan, introduced in 2000 to improve cancer survival in the UK, has a cut-off point at 70. This results in hospitals having less interest in the elderly. "Yet half of all those diagnosed with cancer are over 70," says Dr Tony Moran, NWCIS research director.
3. Four More Weeks?
Even before the results were back from Tuesday's election, the schedule for the health-care vote was already slipping—again. I wrote a few weeks back about how resistance to the bill had bought us another eight weeks, pushing its potential passage back to mid-December. Now it looks like we've bought ourselves at least another four weeks, with congressional leaders saying the bill won't pass this year.
This is crucially important, because the longer the bill delays, the more people get to know about it. And the more they get to know about it, they more they hate it. They hate it because, as the Wall Street Journal's editorial board aptly puts it, this is "The Worst Bill Ever," ranking up with the likes of Smoot-Hawley as a deadly legislative disaster.
Please consider supporting TIA as we help sustain the pressure over this long, agonizing process. It looks like this is how we will eventually kill the health-care bill: it will just keep getting delayed a few more weeks, and then a few more, indefinitely into the future.
"Top Dems: No Health Care Bill in 2009," Jonathan Karl, ABC News, November 5
Senior Congressional Democrats told ABC News today it is highly unlikely that a health care reform bill will be completed this year, just a week after President Barack Obama declared he was "absolutely confident" he'll be able to sign one by then.
"Getting this done by the by the end of the year is a no-go," a senior Democratic leadership aide told ABC News. Two other key Congressional Democrats also told ABC News the same thing….
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has yet to release the bill he eventually plans to bring to the Senate floor. Reid is still waiting for the Congressional Budget Office to come up with an estimated cost of several possible variations of his bill before deciding which one to introduce in the Senate….
Asked directly by ABC News, "Will you pass health care reform this year?" Reid pointedly did not answer "yes."
Instead, he replied, "We are not going to be bound by any timetables," adding, "We are going to do this as quickly as we can."
4. "Obama, Are You With Us or Against Us?"
Iran's new revolution against theocracy continues to smolder, with the protesters taking advantage of yet another day of officially sanctioned mass public gatherings to take to the streets and express their rejection of the regime.
As usual, The Guardian offers a good roundup of the day's events. But Tom Minchin spotted an item—look for the entry under 10:51am—that quotes a weak statement from Obama about how he is "bearing witness" (which means standing back and doing nothing), along with a link to a video in which Iranian protesters chant "Obama, are you with us or against us?" The Wall Street Journal's report translates that slogan as "Obama, Obama, you are either with us or with them."
It is shameful that Iran's protesters should even have to ask where our president stands in a struggle for liberty. It is even more shameful when the answer is that he stands with Iran's oppressive regime. The article below, by two Iranian dissidents, catalogues how the Obama administration has systematically ignored the pro-freedom movement in Iran, refusing to provide either moral or material support.
Today's regime-sanctioned events, by the way, celebrated the 30th anniversary of the day radical students stormed the US embassy and took 52 Americans hostage. The protest movement responded, amazingly, by issuing an apology to America. Here is how one Iranian liberal put it:
"Thirty years ago in the turmoil of the revolutionary zeal an indefensible act of hostage taking was committed that the new generation of Iran are not proud of at all," he said. "We know very well how that deplorable action hurt the noble American people and how it led to three decades of unnecessary and painful bad relations between our two nations.
"Only a small and repressive minority who rule Iran today still insist on keeping Iran on a confrontation course with the US, Britain and the West and indeed they have now taken the Iranian people as hostage to their destructive policies."
An American president who can remain passive and indifferent in response to that is indifferent to America's interests and to our cause of liberty.
"The President Snubs Iran's Democrats," Akbar Atria and Miriam Memarsadeghi, Wall Street Journal, November 3
[C]ourageous and dignified overtures to the US by Green Movement activists have been snubbed by the Obama administration. The administration has avoided discussion about the prospects for liberalization in a country that exports radical Islamist ideology throughout the Middle East and beyond. In regressive realpolitik fashion, it has grown increasingly reticent about the Iranian people's struggle for human rights, apparently viewing it as irrelevant to US security interests. Rather than bolstering the opposition at a time when the Iranian regime is at its weakest, America is pursuing a policy of appeasement.
In response to President Obama's eagerness to strike a deal with the Iranian regime, Green Movement activists are offering a compelling alternative. Their slogan? "America! Obama! From us an apology, from you support!"
Many Iran experts have warned that displays of Western solidarity could taint Iran's democrats. Nonsense. Iranian cyberspace is brimming with anger at what the Green Movement sees as betrayal by the West. From legendary filmmaker Mohsen Makhmalbaf, presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi's representative in Europe, to Nobel Laureate Shirin Ebadi, Iranian democrats are expressing disappointment at what they see as the trading of their democratic aspirations for dubious progress toward the goal of preventing a nuclear Iran….
In practical terms, regaining the trust of young Iranian democrats will require: publicly pressing the Iranian regime to respect human rights; integrating discussion of the regime's treatment of its opposition in all formal negotiations; reviving US government funding to support the Internet, free media, people-to-people exchanges, and training on civic engagement; and leveraging the popular Voice of America and Radio Farda broadcasts to directly express American solidarity with the Iranian people.
5. On the Wrong Side of History
The protest movement in Iran is the most important popular uprising in defense of liberty in 20 years. I can state that figure with exactness, because Monday is the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. So it is fitting, I suppose, that president Obama will be voting "absent" for both events.
The man who was all to eager to jump on a plane to Copenhagen to pitch the Chicago Olympics can't find time in his schedule to fly to Berlin to help Europeans celebrate their liberation from Communism.
Jack Wakeland sent me a long and bitter note about this, which concluded:
"How is it that Barack Obama is entitled to snub us, the American people, denying us our legitimate expectation to be represented by our head of state at a major and joyous global celebration of liberty?
"Will the establishment press take note of Mr. Obama's very un-presidential absence and cringe on behalf of us, the hardworking American taxpayer and the brave American military servicemen who worked and fought and paid in blood and treasure for over 40 years for Europe's victory over Communism on November 9, 1989?"
Then after letting it sink in for a bit, Jack sent another note, which I heartily agree with:
"I'm not really upset that Barack Obama won't represent me at the 20th anniversary of the fall of the wall in Berlin.
"I'm glad I won't have to see Obama's faux-seriousness, conformist leadership, voluble nothingness, and empty presence in operation at the podium in Berlin next Monday.
"Better Americans—actual living, functioning grownups who aren't pretending to hate Communism—will stand for us at the celebration in Berlin."
But then he noted the combination of Obama's indifference toward the Fall of Communism and his indifference toward the new revolution in Iran.
"If you put the two stories side-by-side you get an alarmed and unsettled feeling: Barack Obama is so far left on foreign policy that he's not implicitly and functionally a friend of dictators; he is a friend of dictators."
That's why President Obama suddenly can't find time to go to Berlin. It's another one of his revealing psychological blocks. He can't bring himself to go because he knows that during the great struggle between freedom and Communism, he ended up on the wrong side of history—and he is still on the wrong side of history in the current conflict with Islamofascism.
"Behind Obama's Berlin Wall Snub," Rich Lowry, RealClearPolitics, November 3
Obama's failure to go to Berlin is the most telling nonevent of his presidency. It's hard to imagine any other American president eschewing the occasion. Only Obama—with his dismissive view of the Cold War as a relic distorting our thinking and his attenuated commitment to America's exceptional role in the world—would spurn German president Angela Merkel's invitation to attend.
Obama famously made a speech in Berlin during last year's campaign, but at an event devoted to celebrating himself as the apotheosis of world hopefulness. He said of 1989, "a wall came down, a continent came together, and history proved that there is no challenge too great for a world that stands as one."
The line was typical Obama verbal soufflé, soaring but vulnerable to collapse upon the slightest jostling from logic or historical fact. The wall came down only after the free world resolutely stood against the Communist bloc. Rather than a warm-and-fuzzy exercise in global understanding, the Cold War was another iteration of the 20th century's long war between totalitarianism and Western liberalism. The West prevailed on the back of American strength.
But Obama doesn't think in such antiquated, triumphalist terms. Given to apologizing for his nation abroad, he resolutely downplays American leadership….
Wouldn't Obama at least want to take the occasion to celebrate freedom and human rights—those most cherished liberal values? Not necessarily. He has mostly jettisoned them as foreign-policy goals in favor of a misbegotten realism that soft-pedals the crimes of nasty regimes around the world…. Why would Obama want to celebrate the refuseniks of the Eastern Bloc, when he won't even meet with the Dalai Lama in advance of his trip to China?...
An American president will skip events marking the end of a struggle to which we, as a nation—under presidents of both parties—devoted blood and treasure for 50 years.
6. The Washington Conundrum
The item below has no great significance, but I nearly spit out my coffee when I read it, and I had to pass it on. It is yet another one of those headlines from The Onion that suddenly leaps out as real news on the pages of a real newspaper. In this case, it's the 2000 Onion headline "Clinton Declares Self President for Life."
It is more evidence for the Washington Conundrum: anyone who is sufficiently motivated to seek the power of the chief executive and to scheme to keep it must be a driven by a lust for power—and is thereby disqualified from holding the office. That certainly describes Clinton.
Fortunately, there is a solution to the Washington Conundrum, and I named it after the first man to demonstrate that solution. The only person who is qualified to be president is a man who seeks the office out of a lifelong dedication to the cause and principles of liberty.
"Bill Clinton Says He Never Wanted to Leave Presidency," Reuters via Washington Post, November 3
Former president Bill Clinton said Monday that, without term limits, he would have stayed in the job "until I was carried away in a coffin, or defeated in an election."
"I loved doing the job," Clinton said at a conference in Istanbul. "I loved being president, but I like my current life, too.... I'll leave the politics to my wife and to President Obama."
Robert Tracinski writes daily commentary at TIADaily.com. He is the editor of The Intellectual Activist and contributor to The Freedom Fighters Journal.