The Politics Of The Surge

The success of the surge is beginning to move the debate in Washington, with more commentators outside the mainstream of the right beginning to advocate persistence instead of withdrawal.

Analysts with the "centrist" liberal Brookings Institution weigh in with another op-ed in the New York Times arguing that the surge is making progress, while a German journalist writes in the Wall Street Journal that "Withdrawal cannot serve America's interests on the day after tomorrow. Friends and foes will ask: If this superpower doesn't care about the world's central and most dangerous stage—what will it care about?"

Below, expert political analyst Michael Barone handicaps the political battle over the war and concludes that it has shifted in the Bush administration's favor. He makes a point I have also emphasized: that the American people prefer victory to defeat. They will turn against Bush if he seems to be bringing them an inevitable defeat—but they will support him again if he can offer them the prospect of victory.

"Surge Politics," Michael Barone, RealClearPolitics, September 4 He who frames the issue tends to determine the outcome of the vote. That's a basic rule of political consultants that applies to elections and to the legislative process, as well.

In July, when Congress was considering legislation limiting American military involvement in Iraq, the issue was framed—by Democratic leaders and the mainstream media—as whether Americans should continue to sacrifice life and treasure in a futile attempt to carry on a war that was already lost. It took some considerable shrewdness and steadfastness by Republican congressional leaders to prevent a stinging repudiation of the Bush administration….

Now, as Congress awaits the testimony of Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker, the issue seems to be framed in a different way. Democrats as harshly partisan as Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin and as steadfastly opposed to military action in Iraq as Washington Rep. Brian Baird have had to admit or report that Petraeus' "surge" strategy and forward-moving tactics have produced military progress in Iraq. We are making gains that even strong supporters of the administration were unwilling to claim in July. For Baird, this means Congress should support the surge and not attempt to recall troops now….

Antiwar activists have been running ads and holding rallies to persuade Republican members to vote for a timetable for withdrawal. As the issue was framed in July, they had reason to hope these efforts would be successful. But if the issue is framed as continuing a policy that has had military success, the pressure will shift to the other side….

American voters are not so much antiwar as anti-stalemate—and anti-defeat. Between stalemate and withdrawal, they'll lean to withdrawal.

Between victory and withdrawal, however, they'll usually pick victory.