Russia Returns To Normal Tyranny

Since Russian President Vladimir Putin seems committed to bringing back all of the trappings of the Cold War, it seems natural that we should see the return of "Kremlinology"—the study of the hidden power struggles within the Kremlin.

That's what is so ominous about Putin's decision to appoint an obscure official as his new prime minister—the post widely considered to be his attempt to anoint a successor. Below, Anne Applebaum tries to puzzle out what the appointment might mean—but she concludes, correctly, that the most significant fact is the sheer impenetrable obscurity of contemporary Russian politics.

In a free society, political debates and questions of political succession are matters conducted in the open. But in a dictatorship, they are matters decided behind closed doors, through the internal wrangling of a small cabal or by the caprice of a single man.

"Does This Mystery Matter?" Anne Applebaum, Washington Post, September 18 Russian President Vladimir Putin sacked his prime minister last week and replaced him with one Viktor Zubkov, an obscure official never before mentioned as a potential leader. Wondering why? Here are a few of the rumors in circulation:

Because Zubkov is completely unimportant, Putin intends to make him the next president of Russia, a possibility that Zubkov has not denied: After all, the presidential election is not until March 2008, leaving plenty of time for the Kremlin-controlled media to introduce Zubkov to the Russian public. (Putin's motive? Zubkov can keep the Kremlin office chair warm so that Putin can return in 2012. The Russian constitution prohibits a third consecutive presidential term but not, apparently, a nonconsecutive third term.)…

But the bottom line is that no one really knows why Zubkov was appointed, except for Putin himself. And he isn't telling….

Already, the fact that no one outside the Kremlin's inner sanctum has any idea what the succession will look like is a bad sign. It's hard to talk about the rule of law in a country where power changes hands in such a thoroughly arbitrary manner….

Whether the next president is called Zubkov, Ivanov or Putin, he'll still be the product of a political system that remains mystifyingly opaque, and we shouldn't forget it.