Today's news is filled with rumors and speculation about an American air war against the Islamic Republic of Iran. Washington Post columnist David Ignatius gets it mostly correct when he writes:
Overarching the Middle East like a dark canopy is the growing confrontation between the United States and Iran. The test of wills is sometimes obscured by the daily war news from Iraq, but it has become the main event in the region—carrying dangers of wider war and also some new opportunities for creative diplomacy.
That was good—up to the part about opportunities for diplomacy. What does he think we've been trying for the past five years? And the phrase "creative diplomacy" turns out to mean a very uncreative fantasy about how we can solve all of the problems in the Middle East if we just get people to sit down and talk things out.
To get an idea of why this is wishful thinking, check out a new MEMRI update with passages from recent speeches by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who calls on the world to unite against the allegedly declining powers of the West, whose days are "now coming to an end." Ahmadinejad calls for a conflict that would "transcend the boundaries of the Muslim world" and seek "to establish the rule of the Hidden Imam"—a kind of Shiite Muslim messiah—whose return is "imminent."
In short, Ahmadinejad is seeking to initiate a world war in order to achieve global Muslim dominion, so that he can bring about the coming of the messiah. Clearly, he's a man who can be reasoned with, don't you think?
Within Iran, Amir Taheri reports that the Iranian regime is cracking down on dissent on university campuses, under the banner of a second Islamic "cultural revolution." Taheri concludes that "Iran today is a society whose 'muscle' power is at war against its 'brain' power." That's interesting for an ideology which loudly claims that its foundation is its alleged spiritual superiority. But then again, the Islamists are also busy stealing ideas from the old Marxist, materialist left: first we hear from Osama bin Trotsky, and now the Iranians are borrowing the Cultural Revolution from Mao.
We know Ahmadinejad wants war. What is less clear is whether America is ready to fight back. We are fighting Iran within Iraq, albeit tentatively and with strict self-imposed limits. The New York Times has a surprisingly good report on the death of Sheik Abdul Sattar Buzaigh al-Rishawi, the man who started the "Anbar Awakening," in which Sunni tribes threw their support to the US and the Iraqi government and began fighting al Qaeda. Fox News now carries an AP story about offers by tribal sheiks in Shiite areas of Iraq to do the same by fighting Iranian-backed Shiite militias. The article notes in particular that this "would give the Americans another resource as they beef up their presence on the border with Iran, which the military accuses of arming and training Shiite extremists."
Meanwhile, the New York Times notes that President Bush's recent statements about Iran indicate that advocates of military force are beginning to gain the upper hand in the internal debate within the administration. The Telegraph goes much farther, describing the buildup to war with Iran as inevitable.
The only new infomation in that report is the claim, attributed to an anonymous source in the administration, that Condoleezza Rice has dropped her objections to military strikes on Iran. We'll see about that. But the much bigger and more surprising news is the attitude of the French. Nicolas Sarkozy's new Foreign Minister has come out advising the world to prepare for war with Iran and seemingly backing an American attack.
This makes a fine contrast to the Germans, who have reportedly told US diplomats that they would "privately welcome, while publicly protesting, an American bombing campaign against Iran's nuclear facilities." In other words, they're behind us all the way—hiding.
"Prepare for War with Iran, Says French Minister," Alex Spillius and Tim Butcher, Daily Telegraph, September 17 The world should "prepare for war" with Iran, the French foreign minister has said, significantly escalating tensions over the country's nuclear programme.
Bernard Kouchner said that while "we must negotiate right to the end" with Iran, if Teheran possessed an atomic weapon it would represent "a real danger for the whole world".
The world should "prepare for the worst... which is war", he said.
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