As I said, so far the Bush administration has only confronted Iran indirectly by fighting its proxies in Iraq. Early last year, I got a little excited here when I noticed several reports of serious preparation for air strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and predicted—based on the past pattern of Bush's actions—that the US would bomb Iran by the summer.
Instead, last June 1 Bush put all of the planning on hold while he gave his full backing to Condoleezza Rice's foolish plan to convince the Europeans and the UN Security Council to impose sanctions on Iran. Fifteen months later, that policy has now completely failed. According to the report below, the Germans have flatly declared that they won't back increased economic sanctions.
The good news is that this means the military planning is back on track. If I were asked to project the best possible course of action I thought we could expect from the Bush administration, in terms of reversing its errors on Iran, it would be essentially what is reported in the article below. Note specifically that the administration is no longer held back by fear that the Iranians will retaliate by supporting insurgents in Iraq—because this is what Iran is already doing.
The diplomatists have been utterly discredited, while the administration's advocates of military force have regained their influence. The report below is not vague or speculative, either. It names specific administration advisors who are advocating the use of force, it contains telling details about the debate within the administration, and it even gives a timeline which would have the US bombing Iran by next summer.
And the bombing being considered is not mere "pinprick" strikes, either. I linked last week to two important reports (here and here) about military planning for a large-scale bombing campaign aimed at crippling Iran's military, as well as plans to mitigate the economic effects of this air war.
The key decisions still have to be made, but after 28 years of an Iranian war against America, this is by far the clearest indication we have ever seen that the Bush administration is, at long last, seriously considering fighting back.
"US OfOfficials Begin Crafting Iran Bombing Plan," James Rosen, FoxNews.com, September 11 A recent decision by German officials to withhold support for any new sanctions against Iran has pushed a broad spectrum of officials in Washington to develop potential scenarios for a military attack on the Islamic regime, FOX News confirmed Tuesday….
The Germans voiced concern about the damaging effects any further sanctions on Iran would have on the German economy—and also, according to diplomats from other countries, gave the distinct impression that they would privately welcome, while publicly protesting, an American bombing campaign against Iran's nuclear facilities…
Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns, the most ardent proponent of a diplomatic resolution to the problem of Iran's nuclear ambitions, has had his chance on the Iranian account and come up empty….
Consequently, according to a well-placed Bush administration source, "everyone in town" is now participating in a broad discussion about the costs and benefits of military action against Iran, with the likely timeframe for any such course of action being over the next eight to 10 months, after the presidential primaries have probably been decided, but well before the November 2008 elections….
Other considerations include the likelihood of Iranian reprisals against Tel Aviv and other Israeli population centers; and the effects on American troops in Iraq. There, officials have concluded that the Iranians are unlikely to do much more damage than they already have been able to inflict through their supply of explosives and training of insurgents in Iraq.
Vice President Cheney and his aides are said to be enjoying a bit of "schadenfreude" at the expense of Burns. A source described Cheney's office as effectively gloating to Burns and Rice, "We told you so. (The Iranians) are not containable diplomatically."
The next shoe to drop will be when Rice and President Bush make a final decision about whether to designate the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and/or its lethal subset, the Quds Force, as a terrorist entity or entities….
If the Bush administration moves forward with such a designation, sources said, it would be an indication that Rice agrees that Burns' approach has failed. Designation of such a large Iranian military institution as a terrorist entity would also be seen, sources said, as laying the groundwork for a public justification of American military action.
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