This morning, a reader gave me a heads-up on the two most important updates about Iran. The first is good news: a major new fracture within the Iranian regime.
If you were to compile a checklist of signs that a dictatorship is ready to fall, one of the main items would be evidence that the regime is losing the support of the men with guns—the military and the internal security forces. Well, we can now check off that box.
According to the report below, which seems to be credible, a letter is now circulating around Iran in which top officers in the Iranian military, and a few in the Revolutionary Guards, express their support for the protesters and—this is critical—threaten to intervene with force to protect the protesters against a further crackdown by the regime.
This could be a tipping point in the new Iranian revolution. Loss of support from the military is what brought down the Shah—and it could bring down this regime, too.
"Military Mutiny in Iran?" Afshin Ellian, Pajamas Media, December 12
Leading commentators and diplomats have been pondering for quite some time why the Iranian leader is not prepared to act against the revolution in a major way. The "China model" could be applied, a brutal, fast, and extremely violent strike against the opposition….
Speed and brutality are the key aspects of the China model. Why does Khamenei not activate this model?...
There are serious doubts about the military itself. The army and parts of the Revolutionary Guards (abbreviated as RG) would, under those circumstances, choose the side of the opposition and the people….
On December 10, a statement signed by a number of officers and commanders of the Iranian army was released….
The last section of this brief but powerful statement will surely immortalize these brave officers: "The army is a haven for the nation and will never want to suppress the people at the request of politicians. We shall remain true to our promise not to intervene in politics. But we cannot remain silent when our fellow citizens are oppressed by tyranny."
They go on: "Therefore, we warn the Guards who have betrayed the martyrs (from the war between Iran and Iraq) and who decided to attack the lives, the property and the honor of the citizens. We seriously warn them that if they do not leave their chosen path, they will be confronted with our tough response. The military is a haven for the nation. And we will defend the peace-loving Iranian nation against any aggression."…
Thirty years ago the officers of the regular air force also joined the people. After a few weeks the regime of the Shah was overthrown.
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