If Scott Brown wins in Massachusetts but take a few weeks to be certified and sworn in, Democratic leaders in Congress may try to go ahead and push ObamaCare through with the vote of appointed interim Senator Paul Kirk. But by then they will have another problem.
If the Democrats can't keep "Ted Kennedy's seat"—or if the final vote is even close—that will send waves of panic through the whole Democratic establishment, and other Democrats in the House or Senate may decide that the only way to save themselves is to flip their votes against the health care bill.
Remember how the Democrats managed to get a congressional majority over the last two election cycles: they recruited a large number of allegedly "moderate" Democrats to run in relatively conservative districts, where they took advantage of the right's disillusionment with the Republican establishment. But when they get to Washington, many of these "conservative Democrats" turn out to be Beta Democrats. I first heard this term from Rob Sama. The idea is that the Beta Democrats just second the decisions of the far-left Democratic leadership.
This is how the Democratic Party has cheated death in a center-right country—but that's all about to come crashing down. I was going to call what's happening a "political earthquake," but I think I'll shelve that analogy for a while. It seems in poor taste when they're still digging out bodies from a real earthquake in Haiti.
At any rate, the effects of the change in public mood can already be seen in another left-leaning state. In New York, Harold Ford, Jr., is considering a primary challenge against Kirsten Gillibrand for New York's Senate seat. (Gillibrand was appointed to the seat when Hillary Clinton left to become Secretary of State.) Ford is a real "conservative Democrat," a former Tennessee congressman and current Merrill Lynch vice president—and he is the current chairman of the Democratic Leadership Conference, the group that turned the Democratic Party back a little bit toward the right in the 1980s and early 1990s, only to be purged from the party in the past decade.
Just as Scott Brown is appealing to Massachusetts voters by stressing his independence—as opposed to the Beta Democrats—Ford also talks about "independence" and says that "he would not be a lap dog for Democratic leaders in Washington." He even defends executive pay on Wall Street, telling a New York Times reporter: "I am a capitalist. I believe that people take risk, and there are rewards if they do well; they should lose if they don't."
Ford would be a formidable candidate. He's charismatic and articulate, what Harry Reid might call a "light-skinned black with no negro dialect."
Speaking of Harry Reid, he is in the middle of a protracted political death spiral, fueling speculation that he could be the next prominent Democrat to retire rather than risk running for re-election.
But the person who has the most impact on the party's fate is the president. In his suicidal pursuit of a health care bill, Obama has already seen his approval ratings drop below the psychologically important threshold of 50%. Now we're about to see another key inflection point: the point at which his approval ratings are lower than his disapproval ratings.
Obama is already in negative territory in Rasmussen's polls, but Rasmussen tends to be more favorable to the right. In the Quinnipiac poll described below, Obama is just on the precipice, with equal approval and disapproval ratings of 45%.
"Quinnipiac: Obama Approval at 45%," Tom Bevan, RealClearPolitics, January 13
A new Quinnipiac national survey shows the public evenly split on President Obama's job approval rating. The 45% job approval is his lowest to date in the Quinnipiac poll, and his 45% disapproval rating is his highest….
If the Democrats can't keep "Ted Kennedy's seat"—or if the final vote is even close—that will send waves of panic through the whole Democratic establishment, and other Democrats in the House or Senate may decide that the only way to save themselves is to flip their votes against the health care bill.
Remember how the Democrats managed to get a congressional majority over the last two election cycles: they recruited a large number of allegedly "moderate" Democrats to run in relatively conservative districts, where they took advantage of the right's disillusionment with the Republican establishment. But when they get to Washington, many of these "conservative Democrats" turn out to be Beta Democrats. I first heard this term from Rob Sama. The idea is that the Beta Democrats just second the decisions of the far-left Democratic leadership.
This is how the Democratic Party has cheated death in a center-right country—but that's all about to come crashing down. I was going to call what's happening a "political earthquake," but I think I'll shelve that analogy for a while. It seems in poor taste when they're still digging out bodies from a real earthquake in Haiti.
At any rate, the effects of the change in public mood can already be seen in another left-leaning state. In New York, Harold Ford, Jr., is considering a primary challenge against Kirsten Gillibrand for New York's Senate seat. (Gillibrand was appointed to the seat when Hillary Clinton left to become Secretary of State.) Ford is a real "conservative Democrat," a former Tennessee congressman and current Merrill Lynch vice president—and he is the current chairman of the Democratic Leadership Conference, the group that turned the Democratic Party back a little bit toward the right in the 1980s and early 1990s, only to be purged from the party in the past decade.
Just as Scott Brown is appealing to Massachusetts voters by stressing his independence—as opposed to the Beta Democrats—Ford also talks about "independence" and says that "he would not be a lap dog for Democratic leaders in Washington." He even defends executive pay on Wall Street, telling a New York Times reporter: "I am a capitalist. I believe that people take risk, and there are rewards if they do well; they should lose if they don't."
Ford would be a formidable candidate. He's charismatic and articulate, what Harry Reid might call a "light-skinned black with no negro dialect."
Speaking of Harry Reid, he is in the middle of a protracted political death spiral, fueling speculation that he could be the next prominent Democrat to retire rather than risk running for re-election.
But the person who has the most impact on the party's fate is the president. In his suicidal pursuit of a health care bill, Obama has already seen his approval ratings drop below the psychologically important threshold of 50%. Now we're about to see another key inflection point: the point at which his approval ratings are lower than his disapproval ratings.
Obama is already in negative territory in Rasmussen's polls, but Rasmussen tends to be more favorable to the right. In the Quinnipiac poll described below, Obama is just on the precipice, with equal approval and disapproval ratings of 45%.
"Quinnipiac: Obama Approval at 45%," Tom Bevan, RealClearPolitics, January 13
A new Quinnipiac national survey shows the public evenly split on President Obama's job approval rating. The 45% job approval is his lowest to date in the Quinnipiac poll, and his 45% disapproval rating is his highest….
Obama's handling of specific issues declined again this month, reaching new lows across the board:
Creating Jobs: 34% approve (-3 vs. last poll 12/09)/59% disapprove (+3)
Health Care: 35 (-3)/58 (+2)
Economy: 41 (-3), 54 (+3)
Afghanistan: 45 (-2)/45 (+2)
Foreign Policy: 45 (-1)/46 (+2)…
Perhaps the worst news for Obama is that a majority (53%) believe he's been "fiscally irresponsible" during his first year in office, including 58% of Independents.
Creating Jobs: 34% approve (-3 vs. last poll 12/09)/59% disapprove (+3)
Health Care: 35 (-3)/58 (+2)
Economy: 41 (-3), 54 (+3)
Afghanistan: 45 (-2)/45 (+2)
Foreign Policy: 45 (-1)/46 (+2)…
Perhaps the worst news for Obama is that a majority (53%) believe he's been "fiscally irresponsible" during his first year in office, including 58% of Independents.
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THE SOURCE OF NEW JOBS!
Jobs come from pebble droppers, entrepreneurs making waves, wakes, to start business ventures. The political environment must nurture them, not discourage them. Pebble droppers should be admired for the service they provide. Instead, they are envied by the few, taxed and punished by government. SAVE PEBBLE DROPPERS & PROSPERITY, on claysamerica.com, describes pebble droppers and an environment best to encourage their success. Democrats are tearing down the American ideal of prosperity and freedom. Their change makes community interests superior to individual interests. Few stand up for the importance of the individual, which is why America differs from the rest of the world. Should we give up that which sets us apart from the Old World? Claysamerica.com
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