Despite the current administration's weakness, there is evidence that we are still winning the War on Terrorism in some important areas.
The most important is that we seem to have flipped Pakistan decisively to our side. The news of the latest arrest in Pakistan of a Taliban or al-Qaeda figure—who may or may not be American traitor Adam Gadahn—seems to be solidifying the sense, expressed below by Max Boot, that Pakistan's recent cooperation with the US is not merely cosmetic or a fluke.
Why the change in policy by this off-again, on-again ally? First, Pakistan is responding to its own internal politics. A wave of terror attacks in Pakistan in recent years, combined with the brutality of Islamist rule in provinces where it has taken over, has largely turned the public against the Taliban, emboldening the elected government to take action against it. At least as important, though, is the "surge" in Afghanistan, which may have convinced the Pakistani government that the US is going to win in Afghanistan—so they had better get on the good side of the victors.
This is one of the key prongs of the Pakistan policy I advocated a few years back:
A successful Afghan surge could have the effect of changing Pakistan's calculations about its interests. Pakistan supports the Taliban partly because they sense weakness. Believing (or hoping) that we are about to lose in Afghanistan, they want to align themselves with the winners in order to influence events in their favor. If we reverse the momentum in Afghanistan, the Pakistani government will feel pressure to drop its support for the Taliban, who will suddenly be seen as a liability that makes Pakistan vulnerable.
In foreign policy, the strongest and most permanent results are achieved when a country's sympathies are aligned with its interests. In Pakistan, both are now aligned against the Taliban and al-Qaeda, and that significantly increases the chances that we can deal these enemies another defeat in Afghanistan.
By the way, the Obama administration is also quietly aiding the government of Somalia in its efforts to assert control of the capital city of Mogadishu and thereby suppress al-Qaeda in its main African enclave. This is a conflict in which a little bit of not-so-covert help to a local proxy can save us a lot of trouble later on, so I'm glad to see the administration is taking some action.
"Pakistan Is Getting Serious," Max Boot, Contentions, March 7
Something is definitely changing in Pakistan. Coming on top of news that Mullah Baradar and other senior Taliban leaders have been arrested is this new report, according to which the American Taliban Adam Gadahn, who has performed a Lord Haw-Haw role as a Taliban propagandist, has now been scooped up in Karachi. He is the first American to face treason charges in 50 years and, if brought back to the U.S., could get the death penalty.
There is a debate raging among Pakistan watchers, inside and outside of government, about the significance of such arrests. Do they indicate that Pakistan has decided to break decisively with the Taliban, a group that the Inter-Services Intelligence has supported for years? Or are they the result of accidents? Or do they perhaps represent some kind of attempt to negotiate a deal between the Taliban and the West? No one knows, but I would say the "accidental" theory is looking less credible. Clearly, the Pakistanis are doing this deliberately, and whatever their motives are, it's very good news for the NATO war effort in Afghanistan.
Robert Tracinski writes daily commentary at TIADaily.com. He is the editor of "The Intellectual Activist (TIA)" and contributor to "The Freedom Fighter's Journal."
The most important is that we seem to have flipped Pakistan decisively to our side. The news of the latest arrest in Pakistan of a Taliban or al-Qaeda figure—who may or may not be American traitor Adam Gadahn—seems to be solidifying the sense, expressed below by Max Boot, that Pakistan's recent cooperation with the US is not merely cosmetic or a fluke.
Why the change in policy by this off-again, on-again ally? First, Pakistan is responding to its own internal politics. A wave of terror attacks in Pakistan in recent years, combined with the brutality of Islamist rule in provinces where it has taken over, has largely turned the public against the Taliban, emboldening the elected government to take action against it. At least as important, though, is the "surge" in Afghanistan, which may have convinced the Pakistani government that the US is going to win in Afghanistan—so they had better get on the good side of the victors.
This is one of the key prongs of the Pakistan policy I advocated a few years back:
A successful Afghan surge could have the effect of changing Pakistan's calculations about its interests. Pakistan supports the Taliban partly because they sense weakness. Believing (or hoping) that we are about to lose in Afghanistan, they want to align themselves with the winners in order to influence events in their favor. If we reverse the momentum in Afghanistan, the Pakistani government will feel pressure to drop its support for the Taliban, who will suddenly be seen as a liability that makes Pakistan vulnerable.
In foreign policy, the strongest and most permanent results are achieved when a country's sympathies are aligned with its interests. In Pakistan, both are now aligned against the Taliban and al-Qaeda, and that significantly increases the chances that we can deal these enemies another defeat in Afghanistan.
By the way, the Obama administration is also quietly aiding the government of Somalia in its efforts to assert control of the capital city of Mogadishu and thereby suppress al-Qaeda in its main African enclave. This is a conflict in which a little bit of not-so-covert help to a local proxy can save us a lot of trouble later on, so I'm glad to see the administration is taking some action.
"Pakistan Is Getting Serious," Max Boot, Contentions, March 7
Something is definitely changing in Pakistan. Coming on top of news that Mullah Baradar and other senior Taliban leaders have been arrested is this new report, according to which the American Taliban Adam Gadahn, who has performed a Lord Haw-Haw role as a Taliban propagandist, has now been scooped up in Karachi. He is the first American to face treason charges in 50 years and, if brought back to the U.S., could get the death penalty.
There is a debate raging among Pakistan watchers, inside and outside of government, about the significance of such arrests. Do they indicate that Pakistan has decided to break decisively with the Taliban, a group that the Inter-Services Intelligence has supported for years? Or are they the result of accidents? Or do they perhaps represent some kind of attempt to negotiate a deal between the Taliban and the West? No one knows, but I would say the "accidental" theory is looking less credible. Clearly, the Pakistanis are doing this deliberately, and whatever their motives are, it's very good news for the NATO war effort in Afghanistan.
Robert Tracinski writes daily commentary at TIADaily.com. He is the editor of "The Intellectual Activist (TIA)" and contributor to "The Freedom Fighter's Journal."
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