The crisis in Europe demonstrates that the altruist welfare state has no future.
- "This Country Has No Future"
- This Country Has No Future, Either
- The Era of Unlimited Government
- Double Dip
- "White Guilt and Original Sin"
- Intellectual Climate Change
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Commentary by Robert Tracinski
1. "This Country Has No Future"
Will the New York Times please apologize to the Tea Parties now?
In an article on the growing fiscal crisis in Europe, the Times confesses—openly, unreservedly, and in detail—that the leftist welfare state leads to economic disaster and social collapse. Which is to say, it acknowledges everything we've been warning about. I've excerpted the best bits below, but definitely read the whole thing.
Notice that the Times also acknowledges that this is more than just a financial jam that the Europeans have gotten themselves into. Most of the stories in the article are interviews with young people who are looking forward to a bleak future of economic slavery to entitled Baby Boomers. As one young person complains, "The only thing we're told is that we will have to pay for the others." It is a terrific example of the moral cannibalism at the heart of the welfare state—a particularly twisted cannibalism in which a society is programmed to eat its young.
And then there are the dark hints in the article about threats to "social peace"—a reference, I presume, to the violence we have already seen on the streets of Athens.
It is all summed up by an Italian man who tells the reporter that "this country has no future."
No, Europe does have a future—if it makes drastic changes. But it is true that the altruist welfare state has no future. It never did.
"Europeans Fear Crisis Threatens Liberal Benefits," Steven Erlanger, New York Times, May 22
Europeans have boasted about their social model, with its generous vacations and early retirements, its national health care systems and extensive welfare benefits, contrasting it with the comparative harshness of American capitalism….But all over Europe governments with big budgets, falling tax revenues and aging populations are experiencing rising deficits, with more bad news ahead.
With low growth, low birthrates and longer life expectancies, Europe can no longer afford its comfortable lifestyle, at least not without a period of austerity and significant changes. The countries are trying to reassure investors by cutting salaries, raising legal retirement ages, increasing work hours and reducing health benefits and pensions….
In Athens, Aris Iordanidis, 25, an economics graduate working in a bookstore, resents paying high taxes to finance Greece's bloated state sector and its employees. "They sit there for years drinking coffee and chatting on the telephone and then retire at 50 with nice fat pensions," he said. "As for us, the way things are going we'll have to work until we're 70."
In Rome, Aldo Cimaglia is 52 and teaches photography, and he is deeply pessimistic about his pension. "It's going to go belly-up because no one will be around to fill the pension coffers," he said. "It's not just me; this country has no future."…
According to the European Commission, by 2050 the percentage of Europeans older than 65 will nearly double. In the 1950s there were seven workers for every retiree in advanced economies. By 2050, the ratio in the European Union will drop to 1.3 to 1….
Gustave Brun d'Arre, 18, is still in high school. "The only thing we're told is that we will have to pay for the others," he said, sipping a beer at a cafe. The waiter interrupted, discussing plans to alter the French pension system. "It will be a mess," the waiter said. "We'll have to work harder and longer in our jobs."
Figures show the severity of the problem. Gross public social expenditures in the European Union increased from 16 percent of gross domestic product in 1980 to 21 percent in 2005, compared with 15.9 percent in the United States. In France, the figure now is 31 percent, the highest in Europe, with state pensions making up more than 44 percent of the total and health care, 30 percent….
More broadly, many across Europe say the Continent will have to adapt to fiscal and demographic change, because social peace depends on it. "Europe won't work without that," said Joschka Fischer, the former German foreign minister, referring to the state's protective role. "In Europe we have nationalism and racism in a politicized manner, and those parties would have exploited grievances if not for our welfare state," he said. "It's a matter of national security, of our democracy."…
In Athens, Mr. Iordanidis, the graduate who makes 800 euros a month in a bookstore, said he saw one possible upside. "It could be a chance to overhaul the whole rancid system," he said, "and create a state that actually works."
2. This Country Has No Future, Either
While the welfare state plunges Europe into disaster, the Obama administration is attempting to push the US into precisely the same kind of dead end. He's doing his best to make sure that this country will have no future, either.
Below is a report on a particularly ominous statistic: the percentage of income in the US that is derived from government payments—welfare benefits plus government payroll—is reaching an all-time high, while the percentage of income derived from private-sector wages is reaching an all-time low. If I understand these figures, they imply that the government is paying out two dollars in income for every three dollars of private income.
Put simply, the takers are eating up the makers.
The report below ends by quoting a conservative economist who sums up what is happening: "People are paid for being rather than for producing." That immediately reminded me of Kipling's "The Gods of the Copybook Headings." (The title is explained here.)
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!
This poem was written in 1919, when the terror and slaughter of World War I—in which Kipling lost his son—were still fresh. Mercifully, Kipling had no idea of the terror and slaughter to come.
Let's hope we don't get around to the terror and slaughter this time. Perhaps we can heed an earlier warning:
In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all,
By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul;
But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "If you don't work you die."Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.
Now that the direction of this country is becoming clear—and its end result, in Europe, is becoming even clearer—it's time for us to limp up and explain it once more.
"Private Pay Shrinks to Historic Lows as Gov't Payouts Rise," Dennis Cauchon, USA Today, May 25
Paychecks from private business shrank to their smallest share of personal income in US history during the first quarter of this year, a USA TODAY analysis of government data finds.At the same time, government-provided benefits—from Social Security, unemployment insurance, food stamps and other programs—rose to a record high during the first three months of 2010.
Those records reflect a long-term trend accelerated by the recession and the federal stimulus program to counteract the downturn. The result is a major shift in the source of personal income from private wages to government programs.
The trend is not sustainable, says University of Michigan economist Donald Grimes. Reason: The federal government depends on private wages to generate income taxes to pay for its ever-more-expensive programs….
A record-low 41.9% of the nation's personal income came from private wages and salaries in the first quarter, down from 44.6% when the recession began in December 2007….
Individuals got 17.9% of their income from government programs in the first quarter, up from 14.2% when the recession started. Programs for the elderly, the poor and the unemployed all grew in cost and importance. An additional 9.8% of personal income was paid as wages to government employees….
Economist David Henderson of the conservative Hoover Institution says a shift from private wages to government benefits saps the economy of dynamism. "People are paid for being rather than for producing," he says.
3. The Era of Unlimited Government
This year's mid-term congressional election will be, in my view, a referendum on one fundamental issue: are there any limits on the power of government? The answer given by the Democrats and the Obama administration is "no."
Deroy Murdock sketches out the pattern of a government that controls "everything, all the time." And he gets credit for stating the issue in exactly the right terms. It's not just about "big government" any more. It's about unlimited government.
"The Era of Unlimited Government Is Here," Deroy Murdock, National Review Online, May 24
"Perhaps one of the most important accomplishments of my administration has been minding my own business," Pres. Calvin Coolidge told journalists in March 1929….In this Era of Unlimited Government, the Obama administration and congressional Democrats stick their snouts anywhere they will fit, without the guidance of common sense, frugality, or any sense of priorities. For today's federal government, it's everything, all the time.
Sen. Tom Harkin (D., Iowa) has moved to cap ATM fees at 50 cents per transaction. Between 1999 and 2009, the number of money machines has exploded from about 227,000 to 425,000 nationwide, reports CNNMoney.com. Independent operators spend $9,000 to $50,000 to purchase each ATM and $12,000 to $15,000 annually to operate it. If Congress slaps price controls on ATM transactions, these businesses will shrivel—perhaps fatally. And then who will install and maintain ATMs?...
As if nosing around cash machines, computers, and cars were not enough, Washington Democrats wants to control everyone's salt intake. The federal Institute of Medicine last month urged the Food and Drug Administration to limit how much salt restaurants and manufacturers can add to food products. The Institute hopes "to do so in a gradual way that will assure that food remains flavorful to the consumer." How thoughtful. Of course, Americans who find bureaucratically correct entrees bland will reach for their salt shakers and counteract this entire enterprise. So, why not just skip it?...
Meanwhile, Obamacare—essentially Disney World for federal busybodies — will require $115 billion more than advertised in March. According to the Congressional Budget Office, if lawmakers appropriate all of this legislation's promised spending, its price will leap from $938 billion to $1.053 trillion, an anticipated 12.5 percent cost overrun just six weeks after enactment….
Democratic Washington is like a fire-ant colony beside which the American taxpayer is tied, bare-legged, to a tree. The ants keep coming by the thousands—hungry, angry, and in constant motion.
4. Double Dip
As the consequences of the welfare state hit Europe and the US, the risk is increasing that we will suffer a "double dip" recession—that the recovery from 2008's financial crisis will be smothered under the pile of debt built up from the "stimulus" bill, the prospect of more debt from the new health care entitlement, and the accumulated debt from nearly a century of welfare state spending.
The main article below warns about a double dip, citing a number of different factors. The ones I have excerpted below are the most ominous: those that indicate the still-looming threat of even more government controls on the economy.
Meanwhile, there is financial panic in Europe because "the market knows that the way things are moving now is not sustainable." And a new report warns that European banks are eyeball deep in bad debt from the PIGS welfare states.
And it's not limited to Europe. At least one writer is warning—quite sensibly—that California could be to America what Greece is to Europe: the runaway welfare state whose unsustainable debt induces a new crisis across the rest of the continent.
"Don't Rule Out a Double Dip Recession," Christopher Wood, Wall Street Journal, May 24
World financial markets reacted bearishly to Germany's surprise announcement last week banning "naked" short-selling of euro-zone government debt, derivatives and some financial stocks. Short selling is considered naked when it involves the sale of an asset that isn't owned by the seller and isn't borrowed to cover the position while it's held. The news disturbed investors because of the unilateral nature of Germany's action. It's also seen as a potential prelude to other antimarket actions from Germany, or for that matter the US and other Western nations, where the political backlash against free markets continues….Moving beyond Europe, a further negative for investors to contend with has been China's current tightening cycle; most particularly a machine-gun burst of antispeculation measures in the past two months aimed at its booming residential property market….
Global markets are seeing selling pressure again as concerns about Europe's debt crisis reassert themselves. Spain's nationalization of a regional bank has contributed to the anxiety, Dow Jones Newswires's Paul Vigna and Michael Reid report….
That political mood swing will again raise the protectionist risk in Washington, with the lightning rod being the Chinese exchange rate. Beijing has been signaling that it will resume incremental appreciation of the renminbi by the middle of this year. But with the renminbi having appreciated by 24% against the euro since late November, China's leaders may be having second thoughts. A trade row between China and the US on top of the growing concerns about a "double dip" in the West is the last thing markets will want to contend with. But they may have to.
5. "White Guilt and Original Sin"
If you want to know why loose accusations of racism won't die, even after America has elected a black president, it is because the concept of "white guilt" has been thoroughly institutionalized among the intellectual elites. One of those elites, left-leaning legal blogger Ann Althouse, admits as much—in a formulation more revealing than she realizes.
Among the "lawprofs," she writes, it is "trite" to say that everyone is a racist—in the same way that tent-revival preachers repeat the idea that everyone is a sinner. Hat tip to James Taranto, who headlined this item "White Guilt and Original Sin."
It is a perfect comparison, though Taranto does not name the most fundamental similarity. These are both doctrines which seek to tear down men's self-esteem, to make them feel guilty for the mere fact of their existence—and therefore to make them accept any kind of control that is imposed on them, because they feel they deserve it. Both are creeds that seek to impose control through unearned guilt.
But also note that Althouse ultimately backs down and accepts that it might be more "useful" and "helpful" to stick to a more "restrictive" definition of racism that refers only to actual, well, racism. That's an indication of how hard it is to defend this new version of original sin.
"You're All Sinners/You're All Racists," Ann Althouse, Althouse (blog), May 22
We're all sinners, the preacher tells us. We get what that means, don't we? Why then don't we understand the idea that we're all racists? Why does that bother people so? I've been listening to Critical Race Theory for the last 25 years, so saying that everyone is afflicted by racism seems more tedious and trite to me than truly offensive. Is it useful—is it helpful—to approach problems this way, that's what I would ask. But I've been living in a hothouse—among the lawprofs. Out there in the larger social and political world, people feel quite offended and genuinely threatened at the suggestion that their ideas and beliefs have any relationship to racism….Taranto resorts to the dictionary—the Oxford English Dictionary (hello! we're Americans! [Hello! The language we speak is called "English."—RWT])—to tell us what "racism" means. It's a restrictive definition that preserves the strong pejorative. This is like restricting "sin" to the truly terrible things that other people do, which allows you to maintain a pious sense that of course you are one of the good people. The sinners are those other people. It is possible to think of racism as a much more pervasive phenomenon that we should all contemplate in an honest and self-critical way.
But using the term to assault your political opponents is different. You're not being self-critical. You're still saying there's something terrible about those other people. There could be a serious and valuable inquiry into widespread and largely unconscious racism in American society, but the cheap use of the term "racist" for political gain pushes that inquiry out of reach. What is useful? What is helpful? Maybe it is to wield the restrictive OED definition and lambaste anybody who doesn't stick to it.
6. Intellectual Climate Change
The news in today's edition is generally pretty grim: collapsing welfare state economies, a double-dip recession, an attempt to impose a new quasi-religious code of unearned guilt. So I thought I should end with something more positive—much more positive. The item below shows that, as bad as things are, they can be turned around, and they can be turned around surprisingly quickly.
The New York Times finally recognizes the shattering impact of Climategate on the old global warming "consensus"—though they want to contain the phenomenon to Britain, blame it on a few British newspapers, and imply that there really was nothing to Climategate after all.
The real story here is the failure of American news outlets like the New York Times to adequately cover the story—and the servile way in which the American press is running interference for the Climategate conspirators. The Times states that "heavy press coverage…left an impression that the scientists had schemed to repress data." No, it wasn't the press coverage that left this impression. It was all of the e-mails in which the Climategate scientists schemed to repress data.
But the most important fact here is not the bias of the New York Times. It's the fact that this bias seems increasingly like a desperate, last-ditch attempt to hold the line for a dogma no one believes any longer. Britain has already flipped into the skeptic camp, as has Australia. And America always had strong reserves of skepticism to begin with—outside of the mainstream media, of course.
Climategate demonstrates that it is possible to turn the intellectual tide and reverse the direction of the culture on a major issue. Let's see where else we can achieve the same result.
"Climate Fears Turn to Doubt Among Britons," Elisabeth Rosenthal, New York Times, May 24
Last month hundreds of environmental activists crammed into an auditorium here to ponder an anguished question: If the scientific consensus on climate change has not changed, why have so many people turned away from the idea that human activity is warming the planet?Nowhere has this shift in public opinion been more striking than in Britain, where climate change was until this year such a popular priority that in 2008 Parliament enshrined targets for emissions cuts as national law. But since then, the country has evolved into a home base for a thriving group of climate skeptics who have dominated news reports in recent months, apparently convincing many that the threat of warming is vastly exaggerated.
A survey in February by the BBC found that only 26 percent of Britons believed that "climate change is happening and is now established as largely manmade," down from 41 percent in November 2009….
And London's Science Museum recently announced that a permanent exhibit scheduled to open later this year would be called the Climate Science Gallery—not the Climate Change Gallery as had previously been planned….
"Legitimacy has shifted to the side of the climate skeptics, and that is a big, big problem," Ben Stewart, a spokesman for Greenpeace, said at the meeting of environmentalists here. "This is happening in the context of overwhelming scientific agreement that climate change is real and a threat. But the poll figures are going through the floor."…
Here in Britain, the change has been driven by the news media's intensive coverage of a series of climate science controversies unearthed and highlighted by skeptics since November. These include the unauthorized release of e-mail messages from prominent British climate scientists at the University of East Anglia that skeptics cited as evidence that researchers were overstating the evidence for global warming and the discovery of errors in a United Nations climate report.
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