The run up.
The Nato-Russia thing may be a case of dueling psyops, an orchestrated distraction, a string of poor decisions, sabre rattling for effect—or something we'll look back on as "how could they not see the war coming?" It may be we're not paranoid enough. There are some ominous things going on and, if you'll recall, the Franco-Prussian War and World War I started in late July, World War II started in September. Keep an eye. Watch Poland especially, they've been equipping citizen militias like crazy and integrating their regular forces with Germany's. If all this isn't scary enough, recently released Warsaw Pact documents reveal their opening move was nuclear strikes on European targets. Jes sayin'.